Why It's More Likely The Packers Trade Aaron Rodgers Than Jordan Love

My opinion

Good morning everybody. Or Good afternoon depending on when you decided to click on this newsletter. It is currently 10:42 am as I’m sitting here next to my fake Christmas tree.

It’s an odd feeling sitting here at the beginning of December with the Packers playoff chances at nearly zero. Typically at this time we are getting our hopes up for a potential playoff run. It’s crazy what can change in the span of a year.

In light of the Packers playoff chances nearly gone the off-season discussion is beginning a little earlier this year. After Sunday's game Aaron Rodgers stated that for him to return the desire has to be mutual. It has lots of people including myself wondering what is up. Could Brian Gutekunst secretly be planning to move off of Aaron Rodgers? Who knows. He did speak with the media yesterday and he made it clear that the Packers signing Rodgers to a multi year extension last offseason indicated that they were making a commitment for more than one year. Let’s break down his exact comment and see if we really think he has the intention of sticking with Rodgers. When asked if he wants to bring Rodgers back here is his direct quote:

"Well, certainly that's an offseason-type kind of decision, but surely, yeah…I mean we want all our guys back. We made a big commitment to him this offseason, so that was obviously something that was really important to us. But like we've talked about in the past, this is something we'll sit down with him after the season and it will be something we do together and move forward that way."

Hmmmmmmm. “I mean we want all our guys back.” Now this is a nice thing to say but there are always players that you are going to have to move on from after the season. Now here’s the thing. We don’t really know exactly what Brian Gutekunst is thinking. He said he does want Rodgers back. But is it possible that he is just saying this? It would look bad if he said “Well we gave him a multiyear extension and things for our team haven’t gone well and we have changed our mind. We actually want to move to Jordan Love even though we gave Rodgers a massive extension.” If this is what Brian Gutekunst is thinking he most likely would not say this publicly. 

Is there a chance he really does want Aaron back? Yes. I don’t see why not. But I think it’s important to recognize that this could not be the case even though he says he wants him back, especially after Aaron’s comment about mutual desire just a couple days ago. 

This got me thinking, would it be more likely that the Packers trade Jordan Love or Aaron Rodgers if they HAD to trade one of them this offseason?

Jordan Love has now been learning under Aaron Rodgers for a total of almost 3 years. That is a very long time. Just as Aaron had the time to learn under Brett Favre, Jordan has had the time to learn under Aaron. If the Packers did trade Love this off-season what would their plan be for replacing Aaron? We do not know how long Aaron will play and if Love were to be traded the Packers would have to start the QB search all over again. Personally I just don’t see how Brian Gutekunst would want to do that unless he didn’t think Jordan Love had potential. Even if you drafted a QB in the 1st round this year they likely wouldn’t be able to learn under Aaron Rodgers for 3 years. Rodgers could retire at any time. Jordan Love having 3 years of mentorship under Aaron Rodgers is invaluable. It would be very tough to see him go, especially after what he his impressive performance vs the Eagles.

If you look around the NFL many QBs take huge jumps from their second to third year. Jordan Love seems to have taken that step. If you listen to all Matt Lafleur has had to say about him over the past few months, it is clear just how much he’s grown. Aaron has even stated that Jordan has become a master of the offense. Would Brian Gutekunst really be willing to give that up? I doubt it.

We also have to consider that if the Packers did trade Rodgers this off-season they would likely get lots of draft capital. He has still been playing at a high level despite multiple injuries. Plenty of teams around the league in need of a QB would hand over multiple 1st round draft picks for Aaron Rodgers in my opinion. They would have to take on the contract but from my understanding it wouldn’t be too difficult as long as the team is not too much in the salary cap hole.

It would be sad to see Rodgers get traded no doubt. Would he even want to be traded? Who knows. He has said in the past that he would like to finish his career in Green Bay. It’s possible he wouldn’t want to be traded. Given the Packers defensive struggles could Aaron be looking around the league and think that another team gives him a better chance at a super bowl in 2023? It’s possible. All we can do is speculate.

Of course this “you have to trade one of the QB’s this offseason” scenario does not have to happen. They could easily decide to keep both of them if Aaron decides to return to Green Bay next season. I thought it would be something interesting to think about which is why I posed the question.

The Packers do have a very big decision to make this offseason which is whether or not to exercise Jordan Love’s 5th year option. They have until May 2 to make that decision. Yesterday Brian Gutekunst was asked if he needed to see more from Jordan Love before making the decision and he stated that he has already seen enough to make his decision. After listening to the entirety of his press conference I have a feeling that the Packers will exercise Love’s 5th year option which would be around $20 million for 2024. If they didn’t that would mean 2023 is the final year of Love’s contract and after 2023 they would have to decide whether to let him go or give him some kind of new contract.

The Packers now have just 4 games remaining. After the Packers made a long term commitment to Aaron Rodgers last offseason it felt like maybe the 2023 offseason would be less of a spectacle. However it now seems that 2023 will be just like the past couple offseasons. Will Aaron return to Green Bay next season? Who knows. We will have to wait to find out. Get ready for another wild off season in Green Bay.