The start of the Jordan Love Vs Justin Fields Era

My Packers Vs Bears Prediciton

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In just a few days the Packers Bears rivalry takes a turn. No longer is it Aaron Rodgers enforcing his will on Chicago. It’s a young and unproven Jordan Love. 

Bears fans have to be slightly optimistic. They knew what they were getting when Aaron Rodgers came to town. Now they’re holding onto the hope that Jordan Love is a waste of a draft pick. Only then will the Bears have a chance to flip the script in a rivalry that hasn’t gone their way in quite some time. 

On Sunday afternoon we’ll witness two young quarterbacks with plenty to prove duke it out in America’s game of the week. 

Ever since Justin Fields got drafted #11 overall in 2021 he’s had 4 separate meetings with the Green Bay Packers. So far he’s had no luck . He’s 0-4. In his four appearances he’s thrown 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. That’s a recipe for failure. 

Most people assume now that Fields has a legit WR weapon in DJ Moore and an improved offensive line that Fields is all of a sudden going to become viable in the passing game. I’m not sold. 

Let’s take a look at just how bad Field’s was last year as a passer. 

• PFF Passing grade- 36th

• PFF Passing grade under pressure- 36th

• PFF Passing grade when blitzed- 41st

• Comp %- 34th

• YPA- tied for 17th

• Passer rating- 27th

• Sacks- #1 

There’s no question that the addition of DJ Moore will prove helpful for Justin Fields. When you have a guy who consistently gets open it  makes it easier for the quarterback. But I don’t see Fields suddenly becoming a top 15 passing QB. He was atrocious last year. Like really reallyyy bad. He was one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the league. That’s one of the reasons the Bears were the worst team in the NFL last season. 

There’s this assumption that he’ll take a 3rd year jump just like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. But what if he’s just not that good? So far he’s been a sub par passing QB with an insane rushing ability and there's a chance that’s all he’s going to be. 

The Packers will have their hands full with Fields because of his rushing ability. He may be the most dangerous QB on the ground in the NFL. But if that by itself was valuable, then the Bears wouldn’t have been the worst team in the NFL last season. 

If the Bears win on Sunday it’s because they gouge the Packers run defense. Last season the Bears led the NFL in rush yards per game (177). The Packers on the other hand were and have been one of the worst rushing defenses over the past few seasons. Last year the Packers were 26th in rush yards allowed per game and 31st in epa per rush allowed. They also ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. 

If the Packers can contain the Bears running game and force Fields to beat them through the air there’s a good chance the Packers come out on top. Even though the Bears made some additions on the offensive line there are still a few weak links in the interior. The Packers pass rush should be able to rack up the sacks on Sunday. 

The Packers will finally have Rashan Gary back. Matt LaFleur said that he’ll be on a snap count, but the Packers defense will benefit greatly even if Gary plays 20-30 snaps. Last year the Packers were 2nd in pressure percentage before his injury and 28th or 29th after the injury. Having him back is huge. 

Jordan Love’s first start after taking over for Aaron Rodgers

All off-season we’ve been waiting for the day that we finally get to see Jordan Love in a live regular season game. We’ve speculated and made predictions based on the minimal amount of information that we’ve had, but now we’ll start to get real answers. 

Everything I’ve seen from Love so far has given me the confidence that he’s not going to be bad. Let’s hope I’m not wrong. It looks to me that he’s dialed in and can run the Packers offense. The dude is talented. 

The Bears defense is going to be better than last year, but that’s not saying much. They were the worst defense in the NFL last year. They’ve made multiple free agent additions:

• MLB TJ Edwards (6th best LB PFF grade in 2022), MLB Tremaine Edmunds (5th best LB PFF grade in 2022), edge rusher Demarcus Walker (24th best Edge PFF grade in 2022), Yannick Ngokue (108th best Edge PFF grade in 2022), DL Andrew Billings (16th best DL PFF grade in 2022), and also drafted CB Tyrique Stevenson in the 2nd round of this years draft. 

They’ll be better than last season, especially at linebacker. They also have two great safeties in Eddie Jackson and Jaquon Brisker.

 I still think their cornerback room is weak. 

While Stevenson is a 2nd round pick he’ll be playing in his first NFL game on Sunday. If you look at their other two starting corners they’re sub par: Jaylon Johnson (55th best PFF coverage grade in 22’), slot CB Kyler Gordon (116th PFF coverage grade in 22’). 

The Packers greatest strength on offense is their running game and I expect them to rely on it in a big way on Sunday with Christian Watson potentially not playing after missing practice on wednesday and thursday with a hamstring injury. I expect them to feed Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Matt LaFleur will want to ease Jordan Love into the game and the best way to do that is going heavy with the run. 

It’s unfortunate that Watson sustained this injury right before week 1 because we won’t get to see Jordan Love and this Packers offense at full strength if Watson doesn’t play. It’ll make it that much tougher for Love in his first start of the season. Luckily Romeo Doubs returned to practice yesterday which makes it seem like he’ll be ready Sunday. 

If the Packers were playing a team like the 49ers or Bengals on Sunday I’d be worried. That’s not to say the Bears can’t beat the Packers, but it’s definitely a better matchup for Jordan Love in his first start this season. The Bears have a lot of new pieces and odds are it will take them some time to get everything working smoothly. At the same time the Packers are in a similar position. This is a very young team that has yet to take the field together. 

In light of all of this I believe the Packers will come away with the victory 24-20. I see Justin Fields throwing an interception or two and the Packers being able to move the ball on the ground consistently. Let’s hope the Jordan Love era starts off with a victory. Go pack go.