Predicting The Packers 1st Round Pick
Packers 2023 NFL Draft Preview: What will Brian Gutekunst do?
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We are now only 1 day away from the 2023 NFL Draft. It’s now been about 3.5 months since the Packers played their last snap of football in a loss to Detroit on January 8th that sealed our fate and eliminated our hopes of sneaking into the playoffs.
A lot has changed since that day. Change is expected every off-season, however this year has brought more change to the Packers than we’ve seen in a long time.
Aaron Rodgers is no longer a Green Bay Packer. Robert Tonyan is on the rival Chicago Bears. Allen Lazard is a New York Jet. And 24 year old Jordan Love is the leader of one of the most historic and successful franchises in NFL history.
We all knew that one day Rodgers' time in Green Bay would reach an end, but you’re never really ready to say goodbye to a player who brought so many memories over the span of 15 years. The Aaron Rodgers chapter has ended and the Jordan Love chapter is just beginning.
I’m so ready for Jordan Love. Time to purchase my Jordan Love jersey and wear it all around Dallas.
The first order of business in this new chapter with Jordan Love is building a team around him that can compete year after year. That all starts with the NFL draft. Luckily Brian Gutekunst came away with a boat load of capital by trading away Rodgers this week that gives the Packers an arsenal of draft picks to strengthen this roster with new young players.
Now we know exactly what we have and we don’t have to get past draft day wondering if/when Rodgers will be traded and what the Packers will get in return. Gutekunst made it clear in his press conference yesterday that getting draft capital for 2023 was very important for him. He stuck to his guns and didn’t allow the Jets to lowball him.
Here is a list of the Packers draft picks for tomorrow night.
Round 1, No. 13 overall (from New York Jets)
Round 2, No. 42 overall (from New York Jets)
Round 2, No. 45 overall
Round 3, No. 78 overall
Round 4, No. 116 overall
Round 5, No. 149 overall
Round 6, No. 207 overall (from New York Jets)
Round 7, No. 232 overall
Round 7, No. 235 overall (from Detroit through L.A. Rams)
Round 7, No. 242 overall (from Jacksonville)
Round 7, No. 256 overall (compensatory selection)
Now I want to give my prediction about exactly what the Packers will do tomorrow night in the first round. Please feel free to leave a comment and share your prediction. We’ll see if any of us are in tune with the mind of Brian Gutekunst.
So here’s how I think the first round will go for Green Bay.
All off-season we’ve seen mock drafts with QB’s flying off the board early. Initially it looked like Bryce Young and CJ Stroud would go back to back to start the draft, but over recent weeks there have been rumors flying around that the Texans may not actually take a quarterback. Who knows if this is true or false. We will find out tomorrow night. Florida QB Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis are also projected to be drafted somewhat high. Some have all 4 guys going in the top 10. Others have Richardson and Levis falling lower in the 1st round.
So here’s what I’m thinking. I think that when it comes time for the Packers to be on the clock at #13 one of the 4 QB’s will be on the board. Don’t worry, I’m not predicting Gutey to come in and snag a first round QB, but wouldn’t that be something!
I think the Packers will trade pick #13 and move back in the first round while securing another 2nd round pick. There are three teams to look out for who could make a swing on a QB that have picks behind the Packers. Washtington at #16, the Lions at #18, and the Buccaneers at #19.
The Commanders current QB’s are Sam Howell, Jacoby Brisett, and Jake Fromm. Need I say more? The Lions don’t need a QB with Jared Goff on their roster, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they wanted a Richardson or Levis type to sit behind Goff for a year or 2 and then move on from Goff. The Buccaneers are rocking with Baker Mayfield this year, but I don’t think he’s their long term option. He seems like more of a bridge QB to me.
I predict the Buccaneers trade up to the Packers spot at #13 jumping the Commanders and Lions who could be interested in drafting a QB.
They’d also jump the Patriots who are at #14 and I wouldn’t say the Pats QB situation with Mac Jones is perfect. Supposedly Belicheck was shopping Mac Jones this off-season. Belicheck could be willing to draft a QB at #14 if he really likes him.
Now here is what I think the trade will entail.
According the drafttek’s draft value chart the Packers #13 pick is worth 1,150 points. The Buccaneers #19 pick is worth 875 points. The Buccaneers 2nd round pick at #50 is valued at 400. So I say the Bucs trade their 1st and 2nd round pick to the Packers for #13. This way the Bucs have a chance to draft Richardson or Levis- whichever has fallen- and the Packers still have a first round pick at #19 and now have a total of 3 second round picks.
Now you may be thinking, okay cool Luke, but who do you think they will pick at #19? I’m glad you asked.
My prediction is the Packers use that #19 pick to draft Georgia TE Darnell Washington.
He’s exactly what the Packers need. He’s HUGE- 6’7 269 pounds- and runs a 4.64 40. He can be utilized as a blocker in the run game where he had a ton of success in college, and he becomes a massive target for Jordan Love. I’ve heard some say that he could be the next Gronk if he reaches his potential. Yes please, I like the sound of that.
And if you are thinking there’s no way he becomes Gronk, please keep your reasonable takes to yourself. Let’s dream a little, why don’t we.
Even if he becomes a version of Marcedes Lewis the Packers get a very valuable asset. He can probably come in and be a much more dangerous receiving threat than Marcedes Lewis ever was.
Tight End is a huge need for the Packers after Robert Tonyan signed with the Bears and Marcedes Lewis no longer being on the roster. We need a guy who can help in the run game and another weapon for Love in the passing game. Darnell Washington can do both.
Plus we know the Packers love to draft Georgia players. The past 2 years every Packers first round pick played for Georgia: Eric Stokes in 2021 and Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt in 2022. Brian Gutekunst loves guys from Georgia. Why won’t he do it again?
If the Packers decide to keep their 13th draft pick their are a good amount of options, whether the Packers want to draft a TE, WR, Edge, OT. A ton of guys make sense.
Staying on the idea of drafting Georgia players, edge rusher Nolan Smith from Georgia could be an option. The Packers need to add depth to the edge rusher room. Rashan Gary will be back from his ACL tear, hopefully early in the season, but outside of him and Preston Smith the depth is lacking. 5th round draft pick Kinglsey Enagbare showed some promise his rookie year and he could take a step forward, but regardless edge is a big need.
One question that seems to be asked every year is “Will the Packers finally break the streak of not drafting a WR in the first round?”
This could be the year they do, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Looking at the Packers draft history it’s more likely they wait till day 2. Plus considering we now have 2 second round draft picks if there is a guy Brian Gutekunst likes at the start of round 2 he could trade up just like he did last year to secure Christian Watson at pick #34. One guy that I think would make lots of sense in Green Bay is SMU WR Rashee Rice, who I wrote about a couple weeks ago. He’s most likely to go in round 2.
If one of the top tackles end up falling to #13 I don’t think the Packers would be afraid to pounce. With Bakhtiari potentially being released after the season because of his upcoming $40mil cap hit in 2024(save 20 mil if released), the Packers could draft their LT of the future. There’s a chance Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr is available at #13. PFF has him ranked #2 among offensive lineman behind Peter Skoronski who many think will be taken in the top 10. Another guy to watch out for is Georgia’s LT Broderick Jones.
Regardless of what happens I’m excited to see exactly what Brian Gutekunst does in the draft to build around Jordan Love as he heads into his first season as starter. In no time the Green Bay Packers will have 10 or so new guys on the roster. Enjoy the draft and we’ll talk soon! GPG
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I'm with you. Unless a premier OT is there at 13 I think they trade down and get more picks. I'm hoping they can get Washington. Rice, Mingo or Tillman in the 2nd or 3rd.
The Packers will go with a defensive player and it will probably be an edge rusher until Gary gets back. I hope they hope Love in the second round!