Packers Vs Falcons Preview: Everything You Need To Know
Key Matchups, Team Tendencies, Score Prediction
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I don’t know about you, but Jordan Love’s week 1 performance had me excited all week. He comes in for his second start of the year and absolutely crushes the Bears, finishing with the highest passer rating of the week.
Sure, he wasn’t perfect. There were some balls that were off target. But all in all, that was a heck of a way to start the season.
The reality is it was only one game against a team that was the worst in the NFL last year. But regardless, Love excelled without his top receiver in Christian Watson. Plus fellow WR Romeo Doubs only played 48% of the snaps, recently returning from a hamstring injury. This is the youngest and most inexperienced team in the NFL and they put up 38 points in the first game of the season.
Now the Packers head to Atlanta to face off against a Falcons team that also started off 1-0, beating the Panthers 24-10 in rookie QB Bryce Young’s first start of his career.
What The Packers Defense Needs To Do Vs Atlanta
The Falcons moved on from Marcus Mariota after last season, transitioning to their 2022 3rd round draft pick in Desmond Ridder. His week 1 performance was nothing special. He finished the day 15-18 with 115 yards, 1TD, 0 INTs, and an average depth of target of 3.5 yds, which was 31st in the NFL after week 1. The only QB with a worse average depth of target was Justin Fields…
Just like last week vs the Bears, the biggest key for the Packers is stopping the run. The Falcons had the 2nd most rush yards per game in the NFL last year, and that was before drafting elite RB Bijan Robinson with the 8th pick of the NFL draft.
The Falcons plan in week 1 was simple. Feed the ball carriers. Throw the ball as little as possible, but when you do throw the ball, get it out quickly. Don’t ask Desmond Ridder to do too much. Make sure you don’t throw it to your best receiving weapon in Drake London. (as a Drake London fantasy owner, I did not like this plan. It makes zero sense).
Here’s a look at their week 1 offensive stats.
The Falcons are a run-heavy team that likes to get multiple running backs and tight ends on the field at a higher rate than almost every other team in the NFL.
Here’s where the Falcons ranked in week 1 personnel groupings (per sumersports):
11 personnel (1 RB, 1TE): 20%, 32nd in the NFL
12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE): 22%, 13th in the NFL
22 personnel (2 RB, 2 TE): 10%, 1st in the NFL
21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE): 28%, 4th in the NFL
13 personnel (1RB, 3TE): 18%, 2nd in the NFL
23 personnel (2RB, 3TE): 2%, 1st in the NFL
This is not your typical pass heavy NFL offense. This is a team that wants to get as many big bodies on the field as possible and run it at will. 28% of the time in week 1 they had 2 running backs on the field.
Last week vs the Bears the Packers had an overall great day at stopping the run if you remove Justin Fields from the equation. Luckily they won’t have to deal with the athleticism of Fields and will be able to key in on the running backs.
If you take away Justin Fields rushing yards, 9 carries for 59 yards, the Packers held the rest of the Bears backfield to 3.15 yards per carry. It went much better than expected considering the Packers greatly struggled vs the run the past few seasons. The Packers defensive line is leaps and bounds ahead of a season ago thanks to the recent emergence of young talent in Devonte Wyatt, TJ Slaton, and Lukas Van Ness.
There’s no doubt this test will be tougher. Bijan Robinson is one of the most elite running backs in the game. He had twice as many receptions (6) as any other Falcons player on Sunday. The Falcons lined him up in the slot 7 times, and brought him in motion consistently. All eyes need to be on Bijan.
Even though the Packers run D had an overall solid day in week 1, I’d expect the Falcons to do more damage this week. The Falcon’s offensive line consistently opened big holes for both of their running backs vs the Panthers.
Last week one of the biggest stories was the pure dominance of the Packers pass rush. The Packers had 36 pressures and 5 sacks vs the Bears. Second year player Devonte Wyatt led the Packers with 6 pressures with 2023 1st round pick Lukas Van Ness with 5.
The Falcons offensive line isn’t great when it comes to pass blocking, but they performed much better overall than the Bears. They allowed 4 sacks vs the Panthers, but only 6 pressures (per PFF). After digging into the stats there are a few different reasons the Falcons somehow only allowed 6 pressures but 4 sacks, while being graded as the 28th best pass blocking offensive line after week 1.
First of all, they barely threw the ball. Only 18 total pass attempts compared to Justin Fields 37 attempts. The other factor is the average time to throw. Fields ranked 27th in average time to throw in the NFL in week one compared to Desmond Ridder who ranked 9th in time to throw (among QBs with at least 11.6 snaps in week 1 per PFF).
The Falcons want to get the ball out quickly. The Packers pass rush may have a harder time reaching the quarterback than they did in week 1. I’d expect there to be an even bigger emphasis on getting the ball out quickly vs the Packers.
I find it hard to believe that WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts will continue to be as quiet all year as they were in week 1. These guys are some of the best receiving talents in the league. There were multiple times Pitts was wide open and Ridder didn’t look his way. These are elite players. The Packers defense can’t take them lightly even though they didn’t show up on the stat sheet in week 1.
At the end of the day the Packers focus will be stopping the running game. That’s the Falcons bread and butter. The goal should be to force an inexperienced Desmond Ridder to beat you through the air.