Matt LaFleur’s Quest For Greatness Reaches A Crucial Point With Jordan Love Taking Over

Will LaFleur find success without Aaron Rodgers?

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It’s now been four years since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach of the Green Bay Packers. In these four years he led the Packers to 3 NFC North Titles, the 5th best win percentage in NFL history, and 2 NFC Championship appearances. 

Some argue that Aaron Rodgers is the sole reason for LaFleur's consistent success. While I believe Aaron was a big factor, we can’t overlook the fact that the year before LaFleur took over the Packers went 6-9-1 with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback.

The 2018 season was so bad that the Packers fired Mike McCarthy who had led the Packers to a Super Bowl victory in the 2010 season. Things were headed south in Green Bay. There needed to be a change. 

Enter Matt LaFleur. In his first year as head coach he more than doubled the wins from the previous year. And may I remind you that Aaron Rodgers was the starter in each of those seasons. It would be negligent to ignore that LaFleur was a crucial part of the turnaround from 2018 to 2019. Is it a coincidence that in only 4 years with Matt LaFleur Aaron Rodgers won 2 of his 4 MVPs, while in 11 years with McCarthy Rodgers won 2 MVPs? 

The reality of coaching in the NFL is it takes winning big time games in the playoffs to garner the respect of the masses. They may recognize you as a good coach, but to be seen as great you have to eventually win a super bowl. In the 2019 and 2020 season the Packers lost in the NFC Championship.

People use that against LaFleur and I understand why. But in his first 2 years as a young head coach he still made it to 2 NFC Championships. That’s a big accomplishment. 

Oftentimes LaFleur is compared to 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan who he worked under for multiple years before taking over in Green Bay. Here is a fact that’s eye opening. LaFleur has the 5th best win percentage in NFL history, winning 71.2% of his games in his first 4 years as head coach. Kyle Shanahan on the other hand ranks 76th winning only 53.1% of his games in his 6 years as head coach. 

Shanahan has never had a QB of Rodgers level. Odds are he’d have just as much success as LaFleur has had. He’s made it work with Jimmy Garaoplo, an average QB at best. But LaFleur has won nearly 20% more of the time than Kyle Shanahan. 

The one area where Shanahan has exceeded LaFleur is his ability to pick defensive coordinators. Robert Saleh had enough success as DC in San Francisco from 2017-2020 to take over as head coach of the New York Jets. Demeco Ryans then came in and led one of the best defenses in the league in 2021 and 2022 and now is the head coach of the Houston Texans. 

LaFleur on the other hand has had two mediocre defensive coordinators during his time in Green Bay. Initially he stuck with Mike Pettine who became the DC in Green Bay in 2018 a year before Lafleur was hired. Pettine ran the defense in Lafluer’s first two seasons as head coach. After playoff blunders on the defensive side of the ball in both 2019 and 2020 Matt LaFleur made the decision to move on from Mike Pettine.  

The replacement? Joe Barry. 

In 2 years as DC under Barry the Packers have had the 13th and 17th ranked scoring defenses. Average that out and you have the 15th best defense in the league. Joe Barry is an average DC. Matt has decided to stick with Barry for a 3rd season even though there’s been a lack of consistent success. 

Despite not picking the best defensive coordinators, LaFleur still led the Packers to 3 straight 13 win seasons from 2019-2021. 2022 was a dud even with Rodgers leading the pack. The biggest test of LaFleur's young coaching career will be whether or not he can replicate the Packers success with Aaron Rodgers out the door. 

Lafleur has been one of the best coaches in the NFL over the past 4 years, and he has a chance to prove to everyone that Rodgers wasn't the only reason for his success.

This may end up being one of the best things for Lafleur’s career. Regardless of how talented Jordan Love is, if LaFleur can keep the Packers as competitive as they were under Rodgers for a decade and a half there will be no question that he’s one of the best. It’ll be a challenge, but LaFleur hasn’t given us any reason that he won’t be able to make it work. 

Nowadays people regard Chiefs coach Andy Reid as one of the best coaches in the NFL, but it’s important to note that he didn’t win his first super bowl until 2019 with Patrick Mahomes. That was Reid’s 19th season as head coach. It took him 19 years! Lafluer is only entering his 5th year as head coach.

 There’s no doubt that Reid was a great coach before he won the super bowl in 2019. He had consistent success as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles in the early 2000s. He went to 3 straight NFC Championships from 2001-2003, even though he lost each of them. He made it to the Super Bowl in 2004 but couldn’t secure the victory.

It took the best QB in football to finally get Andy Reid a championship. Odds are that if the Chiefs didn’t have Mahomes there wouldn’t even be a debate as to whether or not he’s the greatest all time. It’s only recently that people even contemplate if it’s possible for Reid to surpass Bill Belichick in the coming years. 

The question for Lafleur is did he miss his chance to win a Super Bowl?

He no longer has the most talented QB in NFL history on his roster. While it’s not impossible to win a super bowl with an average QB, more often than not it’s the elite QBs that carry their coaches to super bowl victories. Lots of LaFleur's success going forward depends on Jordan Love’s ability. If Love is great it makes it that much easier for LaFleur. If he’s average, LaFleur needs to be that much more efficient on the offensive side of the ball. 

To become one of the best he’ll need to win a super bowl. It doesn’t matter how good you are in the regular season if you never win it all. You could be seen as a very good coach, but if you want to go down as an all time great, winning a super bowl or super bowls is a necessity. 

My prediction is that he’s going to show people that he can get it done without Rodgers. Will it be more difficult? No doubt. But what we’ve seen in LaFleur's first 4 years gives me confidence that he’ll be able to make do with what the Packers have. 

It may not be perfect in 2023. The Packers have one of the most inexperienced offenses in the NFL when it comes to receiver and QB. I’m willing to give LaFleur and Love time. If 2023 is an average year for the Packers, odds are they’ll take a massive step forward in 2024. So while 2023 is important, LaFleur’s done enough in Green Bay to at least run the show for the next couple years. 

Kyle Shanahan has shown that it’s possible to reach a super bowl with an average QB. If Jordan Love is average, will LaFleur be able to do the same?