Anders Carlson Struggles + How Long Will It Take To Know What The Packers Have?
Packers Mailbag: 8-10-23
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Only one day till the Packers first preseason game, can you beleive it? It’s been a long time coming.
Let’s get into some of your questions. If you’d like to ask questions in the future tweet me @luke_beller on twitter.
“Do you think Jayden Reed has the ability to take over as WR1 sometime in the season and do you think at any point this season we will sign a vet WR? What FA WR’s fit our team best? (also, love the vids man! GO PACK GO!)” (fbbprod)
I appreciate you!
I have to say no. While Jayden Reed is no doubt in the Packers plans even as a rookie in 2023, Christian Watson is the guy. He has the size to dominate at the catch point and the speed and explosiveness to take it to the house on any given play.
There were some questions regarding Watson entering the 2022 NFL draft and they mostly hinged on the fact that he went to a small school, North Dakota State, as well as issues with drops. The ball dropping issue reared its ugly head in his first game in the NFL when Watson dropped a perfectly thrown deep ball from Aaron Rodgers vs Minnesota.
I think we all remember that play. From that point on it took him a while to get going, but when he finally did, there was no question that he has a chance to be a top 10 receiver in the NFL.
Jayden Reed is in a similar situation that mirrors Watson in 2022. A 2nd round pick with the opportunity to get lots of snaps his rookie year. Reed, 5’11 187, is a good complement to the 6’4 207 Chrisitan Watson.
In the Packers first unofficial depth chart a few days ago they placed 2nd year receiver Samori Toure ahead of him on the depth chart. Even though Toure has slightly more experience than Reed, there’s no question that Reed is more gifted. That’s why he went in the second round. Toure went in the 7th.
The Packers would be crazy not to let Reed take a majority of the slot reps in 2023. He was one of the best receivers in college football last year to get open vs man coverage. Jordan Love could use a speedy receiver who can get open in a hurry.
And to get to the second part of your question, odds are low that the Packers sign a veteran receiver. Brian Gutekunst has made it clear that he wants these young receivers to be able to take lots of snaps in 2023 so that they can progress at a quicker pace. I think it’s a wise move.
Earlier in the off-season I did make the case for bringing in Jarvis Landry on a cheap deal. I thought it could benefit Love to have a veteran receiver present and it could also be valuable in coaching up the young receivers in the room. I still would be down for them to sign Landry, but considering they’ve stayed pat this long, I don’t see them making a change now.
“If Anders Carlson struggles will we bring back Mason Crosby?” (evanhayes7577)
I am a little concerned with the struggles Carslon has had so far in camp. Here’s what the Athletic’s Matt Schneidman shared about Carlson yesterday:
“Anders Carlson made 7-of-9 field-goal attempts Wednesday, bringing his total to 35-of-50 on field goals for camp. He’s 19 of his last 23 over his last three kicking days. Carlson missed a PAT wide right on his first kick of the day before making seven consecutive field goals from 37, 39, 40, 44, 46, 48 and 51 yards. He then missed from 56 wide left and just short from 60 at the end of the starting offense’s two-minute drill.”
It sounds like he is improving. He is a rookie and sometimes it takes rookies time to get in the swing of things. But if we get to the season and he consistently misses field goals the Packers may need to rethink their plan of Carlson being the kicker in Green Bay.
There were concerns regarding Carslon’s time in college. He only made 71.8% of field goals. That is not very good. If you look at kickers who at least attempted 8 or more field goals in the NFL last year, there was only one player with a worse percentage. Just to look at the mid tier range, Mason Crosby had the 16th ranked FG % at 86.2%. If Carlson is around 70% in the NFL, that’s not going to cut it.
The Packers took a chance on Carlson because they believed his issues stemmed from multiple injuries he suffered in college. Let’s hope he can continue to improve and get the job done once the season comes around.
If Anders struggles, my guess would be that the Packers try to find a kicker not named Mason Crosby. They could find a younger kicker and give him a chance. If he came in and found success, he could be the long term answer. The thing about bringing back Mason would be that they’d need to search for another kicker not too far in the future. They need to find a guy they trust for the foreseeable future.
Now if no one was available mid season and Crosby is still without a team, who knows. Maybe they’d bring him in. I’d say that’s option #2.
“How many weeks will it take until we really know what we have?” (lightingbauer)
I’d say 5 or 6. At that point we’ll have some kind of idea of where Jordan Love is and this team’s ability.
Just for fun here's a look at Rodgers first 6 starts in 2008 when he took over for Brett Favre.
So in Rodgers first 6 starts he threw 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Not bad at all. He had one bad game in week 4, a so-so game in week 3, and in the other 4 he was great. In the midst of all of that the Packers started 3-3.
If the Packers start off 3-3 in 2023 and Love has his moments of showing he can be THE guy, I’d say that’s a great start.
There are so many young players on this offense I’d expect this offense to get better and better as the season progress. So even if we start off 2-4 that doesn’t mean we can’t turn it around.
That’s all for today!
You can follow me on twitter by clicking here for more of my thoughts on the Packers: @luke_beller
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