3 Packers WR Draft Targets Based On Packers Draft History

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The past leaves clues that can help us better understand the possibilities of the future. This doesn’t mean we can predict the future but we can use the past to have a better idea of what is likely to occur.

When we look at the NFL teams often like to target certain types of players. The longer time a GM has spent with an organization the more information that we have to look back on to project what is most probable to occur in the future. I’ve heard people in the past mention that the Packers have specific draft tendencies at receiver but decided today to dive deeper myself and chart out every receiver drafted since Brian Gutekunst took over as GM in 2018. I will then take that information to predict 3 wide receivers that would make sense for the Packers to target in the first couple rounds in 2023.

First let’s take a look at every receiver the Packers have drafted from 2018 when Brian Gutekunst took over as GM of the Green Bay Packers. 

Here is a chart I created that shows many different attributes of the 7 wide receivers drafted by the Packers from 2018-2022. 

Here are some of my key findings: 

1. 6/7 WRs are over 6 ft tall. 5/7 Wrs are 6’2 or taller. Amari Rodgers is the only outlier at 5’9. 

2. 6/7 WRs are over 200 pounds. Only Samori Toure is less than 200 and he’s not too far behind at 191. 

• The Packers clearly prefer a player who is around 6’2 and at least 200 pounds.Even though Amari Rodgers is 5’9 he meets the threshold of being over 200 pounds. 

While we can dissect the rest of the attributes, height and weight seem to be the most telling when it comes to the type of player Brian Gutekunst prefers to draft. Looking at relative athletic score we see that 4/6 eligible players were over 8.43. RAS takes into account players' physical attributes and how they test out in different drills. Because Romeo Doubs had injuries around the time of the combine he didn’t take part in enough drills to be able to calculate his RAS. So while it seems that the Packers would prefer for their WR to have a higher RAS score they are willing to dip below the threshold when it came to Amari Rodgers (5.37) and Samori Toure (6.15). 

Now let’s take a look at the top 8 WR prospects in the 2023 NFL draft.

At a later date we can get deeper into WR draft prospects but I found 3 players that fit the Packers thresholds and should be available in the first 2 rounds. 

 If you’re a Packers fan you are aware that the last time we drafted a first round WR was back in 2002 when the Packers took Javon Walker. So odds are they don’t take a receiver with their first pick. But you never know what could happen. I don’t blame them considering the success the Packers have been able to find over the years outside of round 1. Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, and Christian Watson were all drafted in the second round. 

The NFL combine has not yet taken place so there are no measurables at this time. As the off-season continues and more info comes out I’ll share it on this newsletter. Draft profiles and links to highlights will be broken down a little later in this newsletter for those who want to dive deeper into each prospect.

Here’s a list of the top 8 WR’s based on NFL Draft Buzz’s rankings that takes rankings from many different people from around the NFL draft landscape.

I highlighted in green the players that would be most similar to the receivers drafted in the past by the Packers. 

• Quentin Johnston, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Rashee Rice are all 6’1 or taller and at least 200 pounds. 

• While Jordan Addison is 6’0 he’s pretty light at 175. 

• Jalin Hyatt is the closest to the threshold but is 11 pounds lighter than the lightest WR drafted. 

• Josh Downs, Zay Flowers, and Nathaniel Dell are both under 6’0 and 200 pounds. 

Now don’t get me wrong, I would love it if the Packers drafted a guy like Jordan Addison. Maybe this is a year the they decide to go off the beaten path and take a receiver with different attributes than they have in the past.

However the Packers seem to know what they like. They want guys who are built strong and will be able to handle the physicality of the NFL level. In a long time horizon it makes sense that players who are bigger and stronger will likely be more durable and succesful throughout their career.

Real quick et’s take a look at how the top 10 all time receiving yards leaders at wide receiver are built.

Only 1 player is under 6’0 and that is Steve Smith. The top 4 all time receivers are all 6’2 or taller and 200 plus pounds. I would assume if you draft a receiver you want there to be a chance of them being able to go down as one of the best in the league. It’s probably not a bad idea to target players who are built exactly like the best wide receivers the NFL has ever seen. Marvin Harrision has a similar build to Jordan Addison who is 6’0 175 but a majority of the top all time receivers are built bigger. It doesn’t mean you can’t have sucess being slightly undersized but it is probably less likely.

Now I want to share draft profiles of the 3 receivers that fit the Packers mold that could be available in the first 2 rounds. Two are from NFL draft expert Daniel Jeremiah who was a college scout for the Ravens, Browns, and Eagles. Recently Jeremiah put out his top 50 draft prospects and wrote short excerpts on each player.  The final profile is by draftdive.com.

1. Quentin Johnston TCU- 6’4 214

“Johnston has exceptional size, speed and production. He uses a variety of releases to defeat press coverage and gains ground in a hurry with his long, powerful stride. The TCU offense featured him on a lot of crossing routes and deep balls over the top. He amassed a large collection of explosive plays.

Drops are his biggest issue. He doesn’t trust his hands, leading to way too many balls bouncing off his body and onto the turf. After the catch, he reminds me of Mike Williams with his long stride and power to break tackles. Overall, Johnston has ideal size and speed, but he needs to become a more reliable finisher with his hands.” (Daniel Jeremiah)

The Packers have the 15th pick and if they liked Johnston they’d likely need to draft him in round one. He is very similarly built to Christian Watson. Watson is 6’5 207 with Johnston being 6’4 214. Funnily enough both players biggest weakness coming out seems to be drops. Watson had his fair share of drops his rookie year but seemed to clean it up as the season progressed.

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba Ohio State- 6’1 200

   “Smith-Njigba primarily lined up in the slot for the Buckeyes, but he did get some work on the outside. He has a compact build with a strong lower body. Smith-Njigba was very productive playing alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave for Ohio State in 2021, but he missed all but three games in 2022 due to injury.

   He doesn’t have ideal top speed, but he gets to his full speed very quickly. He is very polished as a route runner, leaning on defenders and quickly getting in and out of breaks. He has strong hands and thrives in the middle of the field, as he can pluck the ball while absorbing contact.

   He has some power and wiggle after the catch, but lacks a second gear. Overall, Smith-Njigba reminds me of Amon-Ra St. Brown, and I believe he’ll make a similar impact in the NFL.” (Daniel Jeremiah)

   If the Packers decide to break the first round WR drought in Green Bay I hope it is for Smith-Njigba. The Packers could use a slot weapon with the after the catch and route running ability that Njigba has. Randall Cobb is getting up there in age and Amari Rodgers didn’t work out in Green Bay. Because the Packers already have 2 legit perimeter weapons in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs Njigba could be the perfect fit for this offense. And he also has the ability to play on the outside. Check out these highlights and you’ll see just how slippery he is after the catch.

3. Rashee Rice SMU- 6’2 203

   “Rashee Rice is one of the most technical route runners in the nation. He is very light on his feet which allows him to quickly stem his route. After reaching the top of his route stem, he does a good job of digging his foot into the ground and changing direction.

   When the ball is thrown his way, he shows that he can consistently make catches with his hands. This allows him to square up his hips and rack up lots of yards after the catch.

   I also love Rice’s ability to do the dirty work when on the field. When run blocking, he does a good job of using his strength to control and steer defenders. Before he becomes a primary target for an NFL offense, he needs to work on improving his route versatility. This will make him very unpredictable in the NFL and will confuse defenses. He also needs to work on securing the ball in the middle of the field when bracing for contact.” (Draft Dive)

   Rice was a very productive receiver in 2022 with SMU: 98 receptions, 1,355 yds and 10 touchdowns. He had the 3rd most receiving yards in the nation in 2022. Not bad at all.

   If the Packers continue in their ways and draft a wide receiver in the 2nd round odds are it could be Rashee Rice. I remember last year many draft experts saw Christian Watson as a very raw prospect who needed time to develop his route tree. While that may have been true you couldn’t overlook Watson’s athletic ability. The Packers were willing to bet on Watson’s ability and it has worked out. Players can develop as route runners over the first few years of their career.

If you’re the Packers I think it would be smart to load up on a couple more weapons in the 2023 NFL draft. Whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love at QB, you can never have enough weapons.

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